How the value is calculated

Every number follows fixed, published rules. The model computes the examples itself.

Model
2.0.0
Catalog
2026.10.03-2
Word data
2026.10.02-2+8e88ed51b576
Contents
  1. At a glance
  2. An example
  3. Base
  4. Name
  5. Capes
  6. Collection
  7. Name and capes together
  8. Rarity
  9. Confidence
  10. What does not count
  11. Known weaknesses
  12. Data and licences
  13. Changelog

At a glance

A valuable name with ordinary capes does not count twice in full; a valuable name with rare capes gets a premium.

We show market value: what an account costs among serious traders, not a fire-sale price. Above roughly $150 sales are rarely public; there we rely on forum sales, middleman confirmations, bids and the asks of reputable sellers, not on reseller copies.

Rarity (0 to 100) and value (a money range) are separate results. Whatever has no observable market gets no amount, but still counts towards rarity.

An example

An invented account, calculated by the model itself. A click on the value opens the breakdown, as on every profile page.

"Wandered" with Pan, Migrator, 15th Anniversary, Vanilla, Cherry Blossom, Purple Heart, Follower's, Menace, Home, Founder's

How the value of "Wandered" comes together

$57–230
  1. NameWord, second tier: inflected form$33–120observed. Listings from several sellers, some sales or bids
  2. Founder's176,242 owners$15–25verified. Sold volume visible, several sources
  3. BaseAny Java account with full access.$5–14verified. Sold volume visible, several sources
  4. Collection10 capes, 7 of them count in full: ×1.19$2–12observed. Few listings or one dominant source
  5. Cherry Blossom577,618 owners$2–4verified. Sold volume visible, several sources
  6. Follower's478,772 owners$2–4observed. Listings from several sellers, some sales or bids
  7. Purple Heart507,094 owners$2–3observed. Listings from several sellers, some sales or bids
  8. 15th Anniversary1,557,168 owners$1–4verified. Sold volume visible, several sources
  9. 5 capesMenace, Migrator, Vanilla, Home, Pan$2–7
Total$57–230

More cases

Depending on the evidence there is a range, a rough range, an order of magnitude or no amount.

  • VelmoraFounder'sStandard$20–41
  • Harborno capesRareroughly $500–2,500
  • HarborMineCon 2011Uniqueroughly $4,000–15,000
  • ZqMigratorUniquetens of thousands of dollars, about $10,000–60,000
  • HypixelFounder'sStandardThe name is not part of this estimate, from $20
  • xX_Kevin2009_Xxno capes, first lookupStandardat least $4–20

Base

Every licensed Java account starts at $5–14, typically $9. The best-supported number of the model.

It assumes the account is licensed and fully controlled by its holder. We cannot check that; it stands as a caveat under every estimate.

Name

A name is classified by its shape (length, digits, patterns, pronounceability) and by its meaning (word, first name, gaming term). The higher class counts.

Within its class a name sits higher the shorter and more common it is. Capitalisation, digits and underscores around a word do not raise it.

How the model classifies

Names we do not value

Offensive names, brands and names of well-known people: Mojang can take them away. The page then says "not valued", not "worthless".

Names of one or two characters and names with characters no longer allowed: top points, but no amount, since there is no market.

A name Mojang has flagged for a forced change is worth nothing.

Position in the band

The position runs from 0.10 to 0.90; a name's range reaches 0.30 below and above it, on a logarithmic scale.

Capes

Every cape has its own band from market observations: how much more does an account with this cape cost than one without? The owner count does not set the price.

Freely available capes count at most at the price of their code. Staff and personal capes have no market and get no amount.

Four capes from the catalog

Capes without price data

If a cape closes before anyone prices it, we estimate it from its owner count: fewer owners, more value, typically at most $150. Below 1,000 owners it gets no amount until we have placed it.

All capes with their bands

49 capes, catalog 2026.10.03-2. Amounts in US dollars.

CapeStatuslowmidhighEvidenceWeightPoints
Panstill available, $0–0still available000verified A. Sold volume visible, several sources00
Commonstill available, $0–1still available00.51observed C. Few listings or one dominant source01
Migratorclosed, $0.5–2closed0.51.22verified A. Sold volume visible, several sources12
15th Anniversaryclosed, $0.5–4closed0.51.54verified A. Sold volume visible, several sources13
Vanillaclosed, $0.5–2closed0.51.22verified A. Sold volume visible, several sources14
Cherry Blossomclosed, $2–4closed234verified A. Sold volume visible, several sources15
Purple Heartclosed, $1.5–3closed1.52.23observed B. Listings from several sellers, some sales or bids15
Follower'sclosed, $2–4closed234observed B. Listings from several sellers, some sales or bids15
Menacecodes traded, $1–1.5codes traded11.251.5observed B. Listings from several sellers, some sales or bids0.253
Coppercodes traded, $0.3–1codes traded0.30.51observed B. Listings from several sellers, some sales or bids0.253
Homecodes traded, $0.3–1codes traded0.30.51observed B. Listings from several sellers, some sales or bids0.253
Buildercodes traded, $0.3–1codes traded0.30.51observed B. Listings from several sellers, some sales or bids0.253
Aurorastill available, $0.25–1still available0.250.51observed B. Listings from several sellers, some sales or bids01
Herostill available, $0–5still available01.55observed C. Few listings or one dominant source01
Zombie Horseclosed, $1–4closed124assumed D. Asking prices, estimates or claimed sales only16
Twistedclosed, $5–8closed56.58observed C. Few listings or one dominant source110
Yearnclosed, $5–8closed56.58assumed D. Asking prices, estimates or claimed sales only18
Mojang Officeclosed, $6–9closed67.59observed B. Listings from several sellers, some sales or bids18
MCC 15th Yearclosed, $11–14closed1112.514observed B. Listings from several sellers, some sales or bids19
Founder'sclosed, $15–25closed152025verified A. Sold volume visible, several sources19
Minecraft Experiencecodes traded, $20–60codes traded203560observed C. Few listings or one dominant source115
Moonlight Trailcodes traded, $70–190outside the collection bonuscodes traded70120190observed C. Few listings or one dominant source125
Crafterclosed, $300–900outside the collection bonusclosed300520900observed B. Listings from several sellers, some sales or bids140
MineCon 2016closed, $2,000–4,000outside the collection bonusclosed2,0002,8004,000observed C. Few listings or one dominant source150
MineCon 2015closed, $2,100–4,100outside the collection bonusclosed2,1002,9004,100observed C. Few listings or one dominant source150
MineCon 2013closed, $2,200–4,200outside the collection bonusclosed2,2003,0004,200observed C. Few listings or one dominant source150
MineCon 2012closed, $3,000–6,200outside the collection bonusclosed3,0004,3006,200observed C. Few listings or one dominant source155
MineCon 2011closed, $4,400–9,000outside the collection bonusclosed4,4006,3009,000observed C. Few listings or one dominant source165
Realms Mapmakerclosed, $2,500–8,000outside the collection bonusclosed2,5004,5008,000assumed D. Asking prices, estimates or claimed sales only170
Mojangclosed, $8,000–18,000outside the collection bonusclosed8,00012,00018,000assumed D. Asking prices, estimates or claimed sales only180
Mojang Studiosclosed, $10,000–22,000outside the collection bonusclosed10,00015,00022,000assumed D. Asking prices, estimates or claimed sales only180
Translatorclosed, $6,000–16,000outside the collection bonusclosed6,00010,00016,000assumed D. Asking prices, estimates or claimed sales only180
Mojira Moderatorclosed, $7,000–17,000outside the collection bonusclosed7,00011,00017,000assumed D. Asking prices, estimates or claimed sales only182
Mojang (Classic)closed, $15,000–45,000outside the collection bonusclosed15,00025,00045,000assumed D. Asking prices, estimates or claimed sales only188
Cobaltclosed, $12,000–35,000outside the collection bonusclosed12,00020,00035,000assumed D. Asking prices, estimates or claimed sales only190
Scrollsclosed, $15,000–45,000outside the collection bonusclosed15,00025,00045,000assumed D. Asking prices, estimates or claimed sales only192
Translator (Chinese)closedclosednot priced195
Turtleclosedclosednot priced195
Testclosedclosednot priced195
Valentineclosedclosednot priced195
Birthdayclosedclosednot priced197
dBclosedclosednot priced197
Documentclosedclosednot priced197
Millionth Customerclosedclosednot priced197
Oxeyeclosedclosednot priced197
Prismarineclosedclosednot priced197
Snowmanclosedclosednot priced197
Spadeclosedclosednot priced197
Translator (Japanese)closedclosednot priced197

Collection

Above 6 fully counting capes the value of the common capes grows by a factor up to ×3. Rare capes count, but are not multiplied.

Freely available capes do not count, code capes count a quarter and together at most as 1 cape. The factor grows smoothly, so buying cheap capes does not pay.

up to 6
×1
8
×1.25
10
×1.6
13
×2
16
×2.5
from 20
×3

Name and capes together

A good name and good capes do not simply add up: the larger counts in full, of the smaller the first $25 in full and the rest at 50% at the low end, 75% in the middle and in full at the top.

No account is estimated above $250,000.

Rarity

How rare is what this account has? The score needs no market data. The name brings the points of its class, the rarest cape counts in full, the second half, plus points for a large collection.

Each part closes the gap to 100 a bit: two rare things score more than one, never more than 100.

Collection: 4 points per fully counting cape above 6, at most 40.

Confidence

The grade A to D is the worst of three judgements: how well the items are supported, how complete our data is, and how expensive the account is. Above $25,000 there is no verifiable sale, so D at best.

The worse the grade, the wider and rougher the display.

A
well supported, based on many sales mid up to $40
range to two significant digits, plus the typical value
B
supported, listings with some sales mid up to $150
range widened by 10% down and 15% up
C
thin evidence mid up to $25,000
rough range, widened by 20% down and 25% up
D
few sales, mostly asks and estimates above $25,000
order of magnitude in words, range widened by 40% down and 25% up
Evidence of an item
A
Sold volume visible, several sources
verified A. Sold volume visible, several sources
B
Listings from several sellers, some sales or bids
observed B. Listings from several sellers, some sales or bids
C
Few listings or one dominant source
observed C. Few listings or one dominant source
D
Asking prices, estimates or claimed sales only
assumed D. Asking prices, estimates or claimed sales only
–
No market observation; the value is an assumption
assumed . No market observation; the value is an assumption

From a mid of $50 on, the estimate notes that listings for such accounts usually sit 1.5 to 2 times higher.

Parameters are in US dollars, the unit of the model. Euro amounts convert the raw range at the ECB reference rate and round only afterwards.

What does not count

What does not change the value

  • Proving control of the account here.
  • Premium.
  • Own statements such as "full access".
  • The skin.
  • Former names and the age of the account.
  • Searches and view counts.
  • Ranks, statistics and cosmetics on servers.

There is no ranking by money value.

Invisible from outside, so never in the calculation

  • We cannot see whether the holder has full, permanent control of the account. Without it there is no collector value.
  • We cannot see whether the original e-mail address and purchase details are still with the account.
  • We cannot see bans on servers. Banned accounts trade lower.
  • We cannot see how many owners the account has had, or whether a previous owner could reclaim it.
  • We cannot see whether the game is owned or only available through a subscription.
  • Ranks, statistics and cosmetics on servers are not part of this estimate.
  • A cape that was never worn in public is invisible to everyone. The cape list is a minimum.
  • This is an estimate from publicly observed prices. It is not an offer and not a sale price.

Known weaknesses

What the model does not know or does badly, most important first.

Above roughly $150 few sales are confirmed.

Bands for common words, three-character names, large collections and MineCon capes come from the asks of reputable sellers, bids, forum sales and middleman confirmations. Errors by a factor of two are possible either way; the confidence says so.

The block and brand lists are incomplete.

An offensive name or a brand on neither list is valued like an ordinary name.

Word frequency comes from film subtitles.

Literary words are underrated, surnames of TV characters overrated. The top word class is protected against the latter.

Renaming to a free word raises an estimate.

Words of eleven letters or more therefore stay in the second word class, and a name younger than 30 days is flagged.

Three-character names are classified with doubt.

The data for three letters is older than for mixed names. One of the bands is probably too low.

Staff capes barely have a market.

Mojang, translator, Mojira and Mapmaker capes are at least as rare as MineCon 2011 and are valued at its level, with the weakest evidence. Personal one-off capes stay without an amount.

Pronounceability is a rough rule.

It lets more through than sellers would call "clean". Its bands are set low.

First names and gaming terms come from lists, not prices.

Both therefore carry the weakest evidence.

Only English and German.

Words of other languages count as ordinary names; German words sit one class below English ones.

Proper names count as ordinary words.

Cities and countries from subtitles are valued like English words.

Owner counts are minimums.

Only accounts that wore a cape publicly are counted. The numbers only feed the fallback for capes without a price.

Unmigrated accounts.

Whether they can still sign in, we do not know. They get a caveat, not a deduction.

Data and licences

None of these sources is called at run time; the word data is a fixed part of every model release.

All sources
SourceUsed forRelease and licence
SUBTLEX-USfrequency of English words from film subtitles (74,286 entries)npm package subtlex-word-frequencies 2.0.0, ISCfrequency of English words from film subtitles (74,286 entries)npm package subtlex-word-frequencies 2.0.0, ISC
zxcvbn-ts, language packages English and Germanranked lists of English and German words, lists of first names@zxcvbn-ts/language-en and -de 4.1.1, MITranked lists of English and German words, lists of first names@zxcvbn-ts/language-en and -de 4.1.1, MIT
stdlib first-name listsEnglish first names@stdlib/datasets-female-first-names-en and -male- 0.2.3, Apache-2.0English first names@stdlib/datasets-female-first-names-en and -male- 0.2.3, Apache-2.0
wink-lemmatizerbase form of an English word, once, when the word data is built3.0.4, MITbase form of an English word, once, when the word data is built3.0.4, MIT
List of Dirty, Naughty, Obscene, and Otherwise Bad Wordsseed of the blocklistnpm package naughty-words 1.2.0, CC BY 4.0, by Shutterstock, Inc. and contributors; reduced by an allow-listseed of the blocklistnpm package naughty-words 1.2.0, CC BY 4.0, by Shutterstock, Inc. and contributors; reduced by an allow-list
European Central Bankeuro reference rate for the display in euros, dailypublic reference rateeuro reference rate for the display in euros, dailypublic reference rate
Market observationsbands and evidence: listings with sold counters, bids and asking prices on marketplaces and forumsown survey of 2 October 2026; stored per class only, never a name, a UUID or a sellerbands and evidence: listings with sold counters, bids and asking prices on marketplaces and forumsown survey of 2 October 2026; stored per class only, never a name, a UUID or a seller
Owner counts of capesonly for capes without price data and for the plausibility checkobserved, as of the catalog releaseonly for capes without price data and for the plausibility checkobserved, as of the catalog release
How the model changes

People adjust bands, not an automaton: when at least ten independent observations from half a year deviate from the mid by more than a quarter. Listings without a sale count as an upper bound.

No parameter changes by more than 2 times in one release without a published reason. Every estimate names the versions it was calculated with.

Changelog

Market value instead of fire-sale value

Release of 3 October 2026
  • The range now shows the market value: what accounts like this are offered and traded at among serious traders. Before, it estimated a cautious paid price well below every ask; for valuable accounts that was far too low.
  • MineCon capes are priced from 2026 offers, forum sales and market overviews: about $2,600 for 2016 up to about $6,000 for 2011 at the mid. Older years are worth more than younger ones.
  • Crafter, Moonlight Trail and Minecraft Experience follow their 2026 resale prices.
  • Mojang, Mojang Studios, Mojang (Classic), translator, Mojira, Cobalt, Scrolls and Realms Mapmaker capes are priced instead of “not priced”, with the weakest evidence. Personal one-off capes stay without an amount.
  • Several rare capes on one account are worth more together: their value rises by up to 30% with the number of rare capes.
  • A valuable name with a rare cape gets a premium instead of a discount. The discount for a second asset now applies only between the name and ordinary capes.
  • Very common short words, ordinary dictionary words and three-character names follow their current dealer prices and are valued about 1.5 times higher.
  • Names of one or two characters are priced (four- to five-figure amounts) instead of shown with a floor only.
  • The confidence can now be C up to $25,000, because forum sales, middleman confirmations and dealer asks exist up there; D above.

Offensive names and famous handles

Release of 3 October 2026
  • Slurs and Nazi terms are also caught in plurals, “-er” forms and compounds, in English and German. Such names stay out of the estimate.
  • Handles of well-known Minecraft creators, such as Notch, jeb_, Skeppy or Gronkh, are no longer valued as ordinary names.
  • God, Dad and Mom count as top words. Before, they were held one class lower because subtitles mostly write them with a capital letter.

First release

Release of 2 October 2026
  • First published release of the model with 18 name classes and 49 capes.
  • The range estimates what is paid, not what is asked. All bands therefore lie below the usual asking prices.
  • Name and capes do not add up in full: the smaller of the two counts only in part above $25.
  • Words and first names of eleven letters or more cannot leave the second word class.
  • The price level limits the confidence: A up to $40, B up to $150, C up to $1,000, D above.
  • Brands, names of well-known people and offensive names are shown as “not valued” instead of with a value of zero.
  • The popularity of a first name follows the higher of its English and German frequency.
  • All code capes together count as one cape at most in the collection.